{"id":3900,"date":"2022-01-28T10:04:14","date_gmt":"2022-01-28T09:04:14","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/datascience.unifi.it\/?page_id=3900"},"modified":"2022-01-31T17:35:56","modified_gmt":"2022-01-31T16:35:56","slug":"interview-with-raffaele-guetto","status":"publish","type":"page","link":"https:\/\/datascience.unifi.it\/index.php\/what-data-scientists-really-do-we-ask-them-for-you\/interview-with-raffaele-guetto\/","title":{"rendered":"Interview with Raffaele Guetto"},"content":{"rendered":"

Raffaele Guetto <\/span><\/span><\/span>professor <\/span><\/span><\/span>at the <\/span><\/span><\/span>Department of Statistics, Computer Science, Applications \u201cG. Parenti\u201d <\/span><\/span><\/span>at the<\/span><\/span><\/span> University of Florence, <\/span><\/span><\/span>was invited as a speaker to our 8h D2 Seminar. <\/span><\/span><\/span>He presented his work on \u201c<\/span><\/span><\/span>Italy\u2019s lowest-low fertility in times of uncertainty\u201d. <\/em><\/i><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

The theme of a generalized fertility decline in Europe during and after the Great Recession has been <\/span><\/span><\/span>widely<\/span><\/span><\/span> debated in <\/span><\/span><\/span>the last decade<\/span><\/span><\/span> as a matter of concern. Sociological and demographic studies ha<\/span><\/span><\/span>ve<\/span><\/span><\/span> pinpointed<\/span><\/span><\/span> the rise of economic uncertainty as a main cause of <\/span><\/span><\/span>a <\/span><\/span><\/span>lower fertility rate. The traditional method used to address to objective indicators of individuals, focusing on the actual and past labour market status.<\/span><\/span><\/span> As Raffaele Guetto pointed out <\/span><\/span><\/span>in his research, this aspect is obviously relevant, but is not the only driving factor, <\/span><\/span><\/span>in his hypothesis uncertainty matters but we are not measuring it right. <\/span><\/span><\/span>The role of uncertainty has to be conceptualized considering that people have their own perspective and expectations about the future, so it should be analysed the narrative, which is also influenced by the media. To outline such an approach he reviewed contemporary drivers of Italy\u2019s lowest-low fertility, placing special emphasis on uncertainty fueled by labour market and the impact of Covid-19 pandemic, <\/span><\/span><\/span>considering both objective and subjective sides of uncertainty, like individual percep<\/span><\/span><\/span>ti<\/span><\/span><\/span>ons and future outlooks. In doing so he highlighted the potential contribution of big data and media content analysis and Natural Language Processing.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

Would you explain to someone who <\/em><\/i><\/span><\/span><\/span>doesn\u2019t know <\/em><\/i><\/span><\/span><\/span>the methods of research in demography, <\/em><\/i><\/span><\/span><\/span>how your study on the narrative of future can change how we look at indicators of uncertainty and fertility driving factors<\/em><\/i><\/span><\/span><\/span>?<\/em><\/i><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

\u201cTraditional\u201d empirical studies in Sociology and Demography operationalize economic uncertainty using objective indicators of individuals\u2019 actual and past labor market situation, such as whether they are\u2013or have been\u2013unemployed and\/or employed with a temporary contract. These variables are important and exert a negative influence on fertility. However, we argue, they are not the (only) driving factors behind contemporary Italian fertility decline. Young adults might postpone fertility because their narratives of the future are uncertain, i.e. it is increasingly difficult for them to predict their future and make long-term plans, regardless of their actual economic condition. In this state of affairs, applied research has to focus on forward-looking measures of uncertainty, measuring individuals\u2019 perceptions of insecurity, expectations about their future situation, and imagined futures.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

What are the perspectives of your study among the field of sentiment analysis? <\/em><\/i><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

Individuals\u2019 perceptions of an uncertain future are strongly influenced by media-channeled narratives, as it has become particularly evident after the COVID-19 pandemic outbreak. For this reason, it is particularly important to build indicators of the level of uncertainty channeled by press and (social) media. Among the activities of the EU-FER<\/a><\/span>\u00a0and Narratives<\/a>\u00a0<\/span>research projects, both hosted at DiSIA, we are currently working on a newly created database containing journal articles concerning 29 European countries, collected from the early 2000s to 2020, for a total of almost 500 million articles. By applying both human annotation and different Sentiment Analysis algorithms, we will create indicators such as the number of positive and negative articles on the state of the economy, and analyze their associations with European fertility trends.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

Raffaele Guetto<\/span><\/span><\/span> is also a member of our center. More information about his research can be found on his personal <\/span><\/span><\/span>page<\/span><\/span><\/a><\/span>.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

You can access the recording of this <\/span><\/span><\/span>as well as<\/span><\/span><\/span> to<\/span><\/span><\/span> other seminars at this <\/span><\/span><\/span>link<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/a>. (Registration needed)<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

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Raffaele Guetto professor at the Department of Statistics, Computer Science, Applications \u201cG. Parenti\u201d at the University of Florence, was invited as a speaker to our 8h D2 Seminar. He presented …<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":12,"featured_media":3812,"parent":3762,"menu_order":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","template":"","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"class_list":["post-3900","page","type-page","status-publish","has-post-thumbnail","hentry"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/datascience.unifi.it\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/pages\/3900","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/datascience.unifi.it\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/pages"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/datascience.unifi.it\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/page"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/datascience.unifi.it\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/12"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/datascience.unifi.it\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=3900"}],"version-history":[{"count":3,"href":"https:\/\/datascience.unifi.it\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/pages\/3900\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":3945,"href":"https:\/\/datascience.unifi.it\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/pages\/3900\/revisions\/3945"}],"up":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/datascience.unifi.it\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/pages\/3762"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/datascience.unifi.it\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/3812"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/datascience.unifi.it\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=3900"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}