The pre-Covid-19 stall in life expectancy in Italy: looking for explanations

PRIN-2022, Unifi
P.I.  Prof. Gustavo De Santis

Other researchers:
Elisabetta Barbi (Sapienza, Roma)
Giambattista Salinari (Sassari)

Brief description of the proposal

Progress in mortality decline has slowed down after 2008.
With this research we intend to:

  1. Measure the extent of the deceleration, in general and by area, gender and age group.
  2. Link this deceleration to four main possible, not alternative, explanations/causes:
  1. Crisis and austerity, budget cuts on public health expenses.
  2. Causes of death: are we observing a change in the prevalence of the most important causes of death, and may this change explain the slowdown?
  3. Spatial issues. What is happening to the traditional North-South divide? And what about “internal areas”, i.e. small municipalities far away from the centres that provide the most basic services, such as health assistance?
  4. Tempo effects. What type of distortion may derive from observing things only cross-sectionally?

The policy implications of our research are potentially large. After the COVID-19 pandemic, there is renewed awareness of the importance of efficient, universal health care systems. With this research project, we intend to identify the most critical aspects of some recent health policy decisions, pointing at successes and failures, if any can be identified.